Last post pre-Napa Valley Marathon

(Short version: I predict 3:16-3:20)

Long Version:

Today was a good day.  First day of marathon weekend and I love it.  I used to live in Tucson, AZ and ran with a group of n'er-do-wells called The Interloopers.  A bunch of them are coming up to run the NVM (excepting my dear friend Wayne, who didn't make the trip) and I got to hang out with a few of them today as they made their way from Sac to Napa.  They stopped in Davis, where I live, and we got to dine on nice pizza and tell stories and laugh.  Mind you, these guys are pretty good (I used to be when I trained regularly with them) and they all most likely are going sub-3 hours (more on this later) and it was nice to talk to them and remember those crazy days of doing 4:30-5:00 AM track workouts and ridiculously hard distance runs.  Ah ... them days. 

While we dined on pizza at Village Pizza and Grill (why I didn't take a photo escapes me...oh I know why...I forgot to), I realized why I love running so much and how I miss running with these dudes.  While Davis has running groups, they don't have the Interloopers and try as I might, I've never found a crew like these guys here (if you are some random reader, live in Davis, are irreverant, competitive but think there are far more fun things to talk about while running than running, respond to me!). 

Among the things that made me happy was that one of the Interloopers...call him "Manny" is a doctor.  And he made the case that drinking a couple of brews in advance of the marathon is A-OK.  That advide comported well with my world view and so as I type, I'm hydrating ... errrrr .... carboloading with Dogfish IPA. 

But now to the point. 

Predictions. 

Here is my track record in marathons. 

CIM #1: 3:51 (12 days of training)
CIM #2: 3:25 (45 days of training)
CIM #3: 3:35 (28 days of training)

[are you getting the picture with me and training re: marathons???]

SOOOOOO....my goal Sunday is, or perhaps, was, to aim for 7:30s throughout leading to a 3:16 and change.  That seems(ed) optimistic but why aim low.  In looking at marathon calculators, however, a different story emerges.  Here it is:

Based on my 1:35 half a month ago (which I used as a basis), the following predictions emerge:



Runners World: 3:18:04
Marathon Guide: 3:18:58
MERV: 3:19:33
Running Times: 3:21:54

Mind you, I didn't pause in training for the half (in fact the day previous ran 9 miles at 7:20 and the weekend before, ran 21). 

So, here is my prediction.

I will finish in the range 3:16-3:20. 

That's a 4-minute window. 

The weather is a factor--it looks like it'll be sort of crappy.  But them is the breaks.

Looking forward to it.  Looking forward to seeing my friends again.

No matter what, it'll be great.  Hell, it's Napa Valley man.

Out,

B.